Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250704 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.60 144.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.0 16.4 12.8 15.4 15.9 13.1 14.6 32.8 F F F F F F F U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.1 55.8 55.8 55.8 47.9 47.9 40.9 36.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 -38.0 12.0 31.0 15.0 -27.0 -37.0 -58.0 U VU U N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 61.0 62.0 55.0 53.0 U U U U N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 7.0 0.0 -1.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.76 WP042025 250704 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.60 144.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.