Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250704 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.10 144.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.2 17.1 19.2 17.6 17.2 16.4 37.8 39.0 F F N F F F U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.8 55.8 47.9 47.9 40.9 40.9 30.9 28.3 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 13.0 34.0 31.0 -28.0 12.0 -27.0 -29.0 U U N N VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 59.0 58.0 62.0 58.0 55.0 53.0 U U U U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 5.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 3.0 -5.0 -2.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.24 WP042025 250704 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.10 144.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.