Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250704 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.20 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 12.5 11.8 16.0 17.3 29.8 32.6 43.2 F F F F F N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.8 47.9 47.9 47.9 40.9 40.9 34.7 24.2 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 38.0 45.0 8.0 -30.0 -4.0 -26.0 -13.0 U N N U VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 57.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 57.0 60.0 54.0 U U U N N U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 2.0 6.0 9.0 5.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 N N N U N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.14 WP042025 250704 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.20 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.