Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250704 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.70 146.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 16.0 17.4 21.5 18.7 35.9 37.1 30.2 N F F N N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 52.9 52.9 52.9 45.9 40.7 36.8 26.9 11.8 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 29.0 25.0 -49.0 -1.0 -46.0 -36.0 -37.0 N N U VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 65.0 62.0 59.0 56.0 49.0 45.0 U N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 -5.0 1.0 -3.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.90 WP042025 250704 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.70 146.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.