Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250705 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 146.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.5 12.5 16.7 22.0 30.9 40.4 45.9 41.5 F F F N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.2 49.2 49.2 42.0 42.0 36.7 31.8 32.8 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 12.0 -24.0 -35.0 1.0 -15.0 -19.0 -5.0 N U VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 57.0 53.0 52.0 52.0 45.0 45.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 7.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.88 WP042025 250705 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 146.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.