Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250705 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 147.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 15.9 16.6 20.0 36.0 40.7 47.8 29.3 F F F N U VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.2 49.2 42.0 42.0 32.8 29.1 14.6 5.9 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 -10.0 -11.0 -41.0 -26.0 -36.0 -27.0 -17.0 U U U VU VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 56.0 52.0 51.0 46.0 40.0 34.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 4.0 1.0 8.0 -3.0 0.0 -10.0 3.0 U N N U N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.76 WP042025 250705 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 147.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.