Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250705 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.30 148.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 17.0 18.2 22.8 39.9 41.8 40.9 37.5 F F F N U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.2 42.0 42.0 36.7 32.8 30.0 14.6 -1.6 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -12.0 -42.0 -42.0 -15.0 -38.0 -14.0 -60.0 U U VU VU U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 57.0 54.0 51.0 49.0 43.0 39.0 33.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 1.0 7.0 -2.0 3.0 -14.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.54 WP042025 250705 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.30 148.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.