Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250705 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    148.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  14.8  18.9  34.3  41.8  48.2  28.6  45.6  F  F  N  U VU VU  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.0  47.0  41.7  41.7  34.1  20.8  12.2   0.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -46.0 -30.0 -42.0 -29.0  -6.0 -27.0 -28.0  U VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  41.0  38.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0 -15.0   7.0  12.0  N  N  N  F  N VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.32

 WP042025 250705 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    148.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.