Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250706 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.20 149.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 19.4 37.0 42.8 46.1 30.9 48.1 54.5 F N U VU VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 48.2 43.8 38.7 38.7 28.4 13.2 0.6 -5.6 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -46.0 -30.0 -42.0 -6.0 -30.0 -20.0 -17.0 -23.0 VU VU VU U VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 43.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -3.0 -5.0 -1.0 -13.0 4.0 4.0 21.0 N N F N VF N N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.06 WP042025 250706 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.20 149.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.