Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250706 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.50    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.5  46.5  45.3  48.4  29.2  37.6  27.9  37.4 VU VU VU VU  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.7  38.7  32.4  28.4  13.2   1.1  -3.8  -8.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -64.0   2.0 -40.0 -15.0  -6.0  -3.0  43.0   7.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  37.0  35.0  44.0  52.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0 -13.0   5.0   6.0 -11.0 -49.0  F  N  N VF  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.32

 WP042025 250706 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.50    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.