Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250707 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.80 148.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.0 40.9 30.5 34.7 59.4 50.5 62.7 59.5 VU VU N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.9 34.6 27.7 22.0 9.4 6.3 5.7 5.7 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 -9.0 -16.0 -7.0 67.0 26.0 7.0 -2.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 41.0 39.0 35.0 49.0 62.0 51.0 54.0 VU VU VU VU U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -15.0 1.0 7.0 -8.0 -38.0 -35.0 -34.0 F VF N N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.90 WP042025 250707 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.80 148.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.