Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250707 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.70 148.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.0 30.5 39.8 50.9 54.3 63.0 63.0 63.0 VU N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.6 32.7 27.0 17.3 11.7 10.9 10.9 10.9 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -8.0 -13.0 -17.0 60.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 38.0 40.0 45.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 3.0 18.0 -1.0 -22.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 F N VU N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.22 WP042025 250707 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.70 148.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.