Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042025 250707 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 148.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 40.8 53.6 59.9 63.5 63.5 63.5 63.5 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.6 26.5 22.2 19.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 -13.0 -19.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 38.0 45.0 52.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 VU VU VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 17.0 -13.0 -22.0 -43.0 -43.0 -43.0 -43.0 N U VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.30 WP042025 250707 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 148.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.