Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042025 250708 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  50.9  57.5  56.5  70.6  70.6  70.6  70.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.8  22.3  19.2  16.6  15.8  15.8  15.8  15.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   4.0  32.0  47.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  49.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0 -12.0 -34.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 14.30

 WP042025 250708 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.