Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250704 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  21.4  21.5  18.1  14.4  13.1  10.9  10.1  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  38.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 116.5 112.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  71.0  45.0  77.0  32.0  17.0  55.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  63.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -7.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        9.6%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       30.2%       58.8%       44.5%
 30kt / 24h       14.3%       42.2%       28.3%
 35kt / 24h       11.4%       42.2%       26.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       37.8%       19.9%
 45kt / 36h       24.5%       74.4%       49.4%
 55kt / 36h       15.8%       59.6%       37.7%
 55kt / 48h       42.4%       55.4%       48.9%
 70kt / 48h       23.9%       54.2%       39.1%
 65kt / 72h       34.4%       68.8%       51.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP052025 250704 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  21.4  21.5  18.1  14.4  13.1  10.9  10.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  63.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -7.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%