Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250704 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  28.8  25.4  16.1  16.9  16.7  16.4  17.4  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  41.0  30.0  24.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 120.1  96.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  57.0  81.0  66.0  82.0  51.0  75.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        5.0%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       37.2%       27.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%       19.6%       14.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       19.6%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       19.6%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h       18.0%       47.8%       32.9%
 55kt / 36h       10.2%       26.6%       18.4%
 55kt / 48h       31.1%       30.5%       30.8%
 70kt / 48h       14.6%       24.4%       19.5%
 65kt / 72h       20.1%       34.4%       27.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP052025 250704 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  28.8  25.4  16.1  16.9  16.7  16.4  17.4  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%