Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  21.6  19.3  20.4  11.4  16.8  15.3  13.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  41.0  16.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 100.5  96.6  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  61.0  75.0  42.0  29.0  54.0  51.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   8.0  -2.0  -6.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        6.0%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.5%       40.0%       30.3%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       22.8%       17.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.7%       22.8%       15.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       22.8%       13.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.7%       50.5%       37.1%
 55kt / 36h       14.7%       28.5%       21.6%
 55kt / 48h       27.8%       24.7%       26.3%
 70kt / 48h       13.0%       18.7%       15.8%
 65kt / 72h       11.6%       23.9%       17.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP052025 250704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  21.6  19.3  20.4  11.4  16.8  15.3  13.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   8.0  -2.0  -6.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%