Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  18.3  18.5  15.1  16.2  13.3  11.4  13.8  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  51.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  36.0  16.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  91.6  84.4  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  64.0  55.0  -7.0   4.0  20.0  41.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   8.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%       11.4%       11.1%
 25kt / 24h       33.7%       57.3%       45.5%
 30kt / 24h       19.7%       46.5%       33.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.8%       46.5%       32.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%       43.1%       24.7%
 45kt / 36h       26.5%       61.6%       44.0%
 55kt / 36h       16.5%       43.4%       29.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.3%       31.0%       26.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.4%       23.7%       16.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%       23.9%       15.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 WP052025 250705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  18.3  18.5  15.1  16.2  13.3  11.4  13.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   8.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%