Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250705 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  19.9  18.5  16.6  19.1  18.5  21.4  15.4  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  50.0  48.0  50.0  43.0  30.0  19.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 107.3  86.6  86.6  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  56.0  27.0  70.0   5.0  59.0 -19.0  11.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   5.0  -6.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  U  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.7%       19.9%       16.8%
 25kt / 24h       49.3%       69.7%       59.5%
 30kt / 24h       34.3%       64.8%       49.6%
 35kt / 24h       34.3%       64.8%       49.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       61.4%       33.8%
 45kt / 36h       28.9%       66.9%       47.9%
 55kt / 36h       17.8%       50.7%       34.3%
 55kt / 48h       24.6%       36.6%       30.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.7%       26.8%       18.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%       22.4%       13.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 WP052025 250705 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  19.9  18.5  16.6  19.1  18.5  21.4  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   5.0  -6.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  F  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%