Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  18.8  18.6  14.5  16.6  16.0  20.0  19.4  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  30.0  15.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0  97.3  76.6  69.4  69.4  69.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  27.0  53.0  15.0  41.0  19.0 -11.0   2.0  N  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   9.0  -3.0   0.0  -7.0   0.0  -2.0  U  N  U  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.9%       22.7%       29.3%
 25kt / 24h       49.2%       60.7%       54.9%
 30kt / 24h       42.6%       58.4%       50.5%
 35kt / 24h       41.5%       58.4%       49.9%
 40kt / 24h       23.2%       58.4%       40.8%
 45kt / 36h       31.2%       42.8%       37.0%
 55kt / 36h       21.7%       25.1%       23.4%
 55kt / 48h       23.3%       14.4%       18.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.1%        9.6%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        5.6%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP052025 250705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  18.8  18.6  14.5  16.6  16.0  20.0  19.4  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   9.0  -3.0   0.0  -7.0   0.0  -2.0  F  N  F  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%