Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250705 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  18.5  14.0  18.9  16.0  18.9  11.3  26.5  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  19.0  16.0  14.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  92.3  85.7  71.6  68.0  64.4  64.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  31.0  34.0   2.0  23.0  36.0 -27.0  -3.0  U  N  N  U  U  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   7.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.6%       24.6%       28.1%
 25kt / 24h       42.2%       56.2%       49.2%
 30kt / 24h       34.3%       53.0%       43.7%
 35kt / 24h       33.8%       53.0%       43.4%
 40kt / 24h       19.6%       53.0%       36.3%
 45kt / 36h       24.8%       34.9%       29.8%
 55kt / 36h       15.6%       18.9%       17.3%
 55kt / 48h       14.3%       13.1%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        6.8%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 WP052025 250705 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  18.5  14.0  18.9  16.0  18.9  11.3  26.5  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   7.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%