Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250706 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  14.4  18.9  19.4  13.5  15.3  23.5  16.4  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  50.0  47.0  39.0  18.0  19.0  15.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  89.6  80.7  78.6  64.8  70.5  64.8  61.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  34.0   2.0  36.0  30.0 -15.0   9.0  -9.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   6.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.1%       35.9%       40.5%
 25kt / 24h       47.3%       59.4%       53.4%
 30kt / 24h       46.2%       59.4%       52.8%
 35kt / 24h       46.2%       59.4%       52.8%
 40kt / 24h       18.5%       58.6%       38.6%
 45kt / 36h       26.5%       37.0%       31.8%
 55kt / 36h       17.0%       21.3%       19.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.5%       12.5%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 WP052025 250706 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  14.4  18.9  19.4  13.5  15.3  23.5  16.4  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   6.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%