Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250706 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  19.3  18.6  21.4  19.2  17.1  23.6  13.1  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  47.0  44.0  28.0  19.0  12.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  85.0  68.6  72.9  46.0  44.3  44.3  44.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  10.0  56.0  16.0  61.0  23.0  35.0   9.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  16.0   9.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       69.4%       54.6%       62.0%
 25kt / 24h       71.6%       73.0%       72.3%
 30kt / 24h       71.6%       73.0%       72.3%
 35kt / 24h       71.6%       73.0%       72.3%
 40kt / 24h       29.5%       72.2%       50.8%
 45kt / 36h       38.8%       43.5%       41.1%
 55kt / 36h       22.1%       27.8%       24.9%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%        8.9%       12.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 WP052025 250706 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  19.3  18.6  21.4  19.2  17.1  23.6  13.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  16.0   9.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%