Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250706 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  18.2  18.5  16.5  19.0  20.7  17.9  16.8  N  F  N  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  31.0  21.0  19.0  19.0  17.0  16.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.7  58.6  56.5  50.5  50.5  44.8  48.5  39.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  56.0  16.0  39.0  31.0  47.0  30.0 -56.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  64.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  16.0   9.0  -5.0   0.0  -6.0  -1.0   1.0  N  U  U  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.5%       24.6%       41.6%
 25kt / 24h       32.0%       30.6%       31.3%
 30kt / 24h       32.0%       26.7%       29.3%
 35kt / 24h       32.0%       26.7%       29.3%
 40kt / 24h       20.5%       25.8%       23.1%
 45kt / 36h       36.4%       19.7%       28.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 WP052025 250706 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  18.2  18.5  16.5  19.0  20.7  17.9  16.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  64.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  16.0   9.0  -5.0   0.0  -6.0  -1.0   1.0  N  F  F  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%