Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  16.7  17.1  23.1  16.4  26.2  14.5  20.7  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  31.0  21.0  20.0  18.0  11.0   4.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  76.5  76.5  70.5  70.5  61.2  51.1  63.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  22.0  59.0  65.0  47.0  -8.0  52.0  -4.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   7.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.8%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        6.2%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.1%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        1.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 WP052025 250706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  16.7  17.1  23.1  16.4  26.2  14.5  20.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   7.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%