Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052025 250707 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.80 121.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 17.9 18.2 11.2 27.1 15.9 22.6 11.2 F F F F N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 17.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 93.0 96.6 86.0 86.0 91.2 82.7 94.8 96.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 65.0 68.0 21.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 17.0 50.0 N N U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 63.0 65.0 64.0 64.0 67.0 68.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.86 WP052025 250707 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.80 121.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.