Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052025 250707 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.10 121.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 21.2 15.9 25.8 24.9 20.9 18.4 15.3 N N F N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 16.0 16.0 12.0 2.0 13.0 13.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.0 91.6 88.0 88.0 86.2 84.4 84.4 84.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 45.0 17.0 -5.0 16.0 8.0 31.0 3.0 N N U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 65.0 66.0 65.0 71.0 69.0 73.0 72.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.0 -2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.0% 1.8% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 2.8% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 2.7% 0.7% 1.7% 70kt / 48h 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.94 WP052025 250707 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.10 121.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.