Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250707 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  14.6  22.4  28.4  17.3  21.8  15.4  14.6  N  F  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.0  86.0  93.0  91.2  82.7  96.6  96.6 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  17.0  10.0   0.0  38.0   8.0  32.0 -11.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        0.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.84

 WP052025 250707 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.