Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250708 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  23.0  28.0  25.0  20.6  24.0  17.7  14.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  87.7  93.0  87.7  86.0  96.6 112.9 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -17.0  -7.0 -29.0  16.0  22.0  29.0  13.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -9.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.66

 WP052025 250708 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.