Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052025 250708 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.90 122.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.5 27.9 25.4 19.6 25.7 13.9 19.0 11.5 N N N N N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.8 98.0 92.7 89.3 101.6 117.9 115.7 113.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 -8.0 -29.0 17.0 4.0 44.0 4.0 20.0 U U VU U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 66.0 68.0 69.0 71.0 73.0 75.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.9% 1.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 WP052025 250708 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.90 122.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.