Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250708 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  28.2  22.3  19.4  22.4  16.5  12.9  14.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  92.7  89.3  89.3 101.6 103.5 103.5 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -38.0   4.0   2.0  13.0  20.0 -13.0  -7.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.66

 WP052025 250708 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.