Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052025 250708 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.80 120.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.8 20.4 20.1 26.5 14.2 15.4 13.7 12.1 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 89.3 89.3 101.6 115.7 117.9 101.6 91.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -38.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 35.0 1.0 -5.0 -41.0 VU U U U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 70.0 74.0 75.0 80.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 WP052025 250708 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.80 120.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.