Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250710 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.2  14.0  12.0   7.8  18.4  13.5  25.2  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  25.0   8.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        149.3 149.3 149.3 135.7 121.6 121.6 135.7 149.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  -8.0  -6.0   0.0   9.0  10.0   9.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  74.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%       11.2%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       22.2%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%       10.2%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        2.1%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        7.5%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%       17.7%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 WP052025 250710 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.2  14.0  12.0   7.8  18.4  13.5  25.2  U  U  U  U VU  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  74.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%