Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250710 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.6  13.9  16.7  11.8  18.5  10.8  12.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  22.0  13.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        149.3 149.3 149.3 149.3 133.6 121.6 121.6 123.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -24.0  -6.0   2.0 -10.0  -1.0  -2.0 -12.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       20.4%       11.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        9.3%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        8.2%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       37.5%       19.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%       21.7%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        1.3%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%       12.4%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%       23.4%       12.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 WP052025 250710 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.6  13.9  16.7  11.8  18.5  10.8  12.2  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%