Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052025 250710 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  12.1  11.2   9.9  15.9  11.5  14.8  11.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        149.3 137.9 123.5 121.6 112.7 112.7 103.0  94.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -13.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -9.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  68.0  67.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        8.0%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       17.5%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        8.0%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%        2.8%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        5.7%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        8.9%        4.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 WP052025 250710 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  12.1  11.2   9.9  15.9  11.5  14.8  11.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  68.0  67.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%