Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062025 250711 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    140.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  19.4  18.5  22.4  21.5  25.8  29.4  37.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  28.0  27.0  20.0  11.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 120.7 112.4  92.7  75.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  46.0  52.0  34.0  61.0  43.0  50.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   7.0   5.0   5.0  -4.0  18.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%       12.8%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        4.5%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.9%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.9%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       14.3%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        4.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        4.8%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.7%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.5%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP062025 250711 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    140.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  19.4  18.5  22.4  21.5  25.8  29.4  37.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   7.0   5.0   5.0  -4.0  18.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%