Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062025 250712 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  20.6  20.4  23.2  24.3  16.1  20.7  31.3  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  24.0  20.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 127.0 115.7  89.3  74.4  36.4  11.2  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  32.0  54.0  78.0  55.0  53.0  37.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  79.0  74.0  63.0  54.0  60.0  67.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   6.0   7.0  -3.0   8.0   8.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.0%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       18.4%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        7.5%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        7.5%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        7.5%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       13.3%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        4.2%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        2.5%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        2.5%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 WP062025 250712 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  20.6  20.4  23.2  24.3  16.1  20.7  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  79.0  74.0  63.0  54.0  60.0  67.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   6.0   7.0  -3.0   8.0   8.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%