Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062025 250712 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.2  25.6  29.6  33.4  26.6  37.8  35.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  32.0  25.0  24.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 127.0 120.1  98.0  70.4  30.7   9.2  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  44.0  65.0  56.0  66.0  68.0  55.0  59.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  79.0  75.0  66.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   9.0   9.0  14.0  22.0  31.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.4%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       14.7%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        6.3%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        5.7%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        5.1%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        8.9%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.2%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 WP062025 250712 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.2  25.6  29.6  33.4  26.6  37.8  35.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  79.0  75.0  66.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   9.0   9.0  14.0  22.0  31.0  51.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%