Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062025 250712 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  25.2  27.2  18.0  18.9  27.3  38.6  80.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  18.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 117.9  98.0  83.0  53.7  17.1   6.1   5.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  49.0  53.0  34.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  67.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  57.0  50.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0  -1.0   3.0  15.0  26.0  19.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.9%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        0.2%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 WP062025 250712 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  25.2  27.2  18.0  18.9  27.3  38.6  80.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  67.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  57.0  50.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0  -1.0   3.0  15.0  26.0  19.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%