Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062025 250713 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.4  21.8  21.7  25.1  25.6  46.5  72.7  N  U  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5  99.8  84.6  66.7  30.1   8.2   5.4   6.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  43.0  36.0  73.0  56.0  59.0  32.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  61.0  62.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   0.0  10.0  11.0  10.0  37.0  -4.0  16.0  U  N  U  U  U VU  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        0.0%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 WP062025 250713 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.