Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062025 250713 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    143.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  22.2  25.7  27.9  29.3  32.6  28.5  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.7  31.6  13.7  -3.2  -8.5  -8.8  -8.7  -7.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  56.0  57.0  67.0  29.0  21.0  20.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  60.0  63.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  15.0  21.0  27.0   3.0  17.0  17.0  33.0 VU  U VU VU  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.4%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.52

 WP062025 250713 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    143.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.