Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062025 250714 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.80 142.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.90 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 27.0 28.4 44.4 55.8 64.3 46.9 50.1 N N N VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 12.0 1.7 -2.0 -3.9 -4.3 -4.1 -4.0 -4.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 46.0 37.0 12.0 -19.0 -9.0 26.0 75.0 U N N U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 64.0 65.0 59.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 56.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 22.0 27.0 0.0 0.0 22.0 40.0 60.0 U VU VU N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 15.00 WP062025 250714 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.80 142.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.