Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062025 250714 12UTC Storm Located at : 39.80 142.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 29.5 36.9 40.5 47.9 57.7 53.4 51.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 6.7 3.4 1.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 44.0 6.0 5.0 -6.0 -5.0 45.0 62.0 N N U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 53.0 54.0 53.0 43.0 N N N U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 21.0 11.0 -11.0 18.0 49.0 50.0 28.0 U VU U F VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 12.28 WP062025 250714 12UTC Storm Located at : 39.80 142.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.