Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072025 250712 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.80 123.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 18.0 22.5 26.1 39.9 17.5 19.0 41.6 F F N N U F N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.9 78.0 68.2 72.9 46.9 42.1 42.7 43.4 U N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 37.0 11.0 33.0 24.0 -17.0 6.0 54.0 N N U N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 59.0 55.0 45.0 38.0 35.0 51.0 N N U U VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -6.0 -3.0 -8.0 -9.0 0.0 5.0 20.0 N F N F F N N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.06 WP072025 250712 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.80 123.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.