Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072025 250714 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 130.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.2 34.8 21.1 24.7 33.6 29.6 25.4 26.4 U U N N U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.4 60.0 52.6 47.7 31.6 28.2 23.6 20.4 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 4.0 -34.0 -21.0 5.0 43.0 55.0 6.0 U U VU VU U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 53.0 54.0 57.0 52.0 59.0 63.0 70.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 7.0 1.0 -1.0 24.0 29.0 28.0 20.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.64 WP072025 250714 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 130.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.