Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072025 250714 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 141.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.4 13.4 10.8 23.1 35.2 37.0 33.5 33.5 N F F N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 56.6 49.1 48.4 48.4 45.8 36.8 27.9 27.9 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -17.0 -12.0 17.0 23.0 61.0 7.0 7.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 48.0 43.0 39.0 53.0 59.0 66.0 66.0 U U VU VU U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 0.0 -2.0 3.0 17.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.38 WP072025 250714 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.