Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082025 250715 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 140.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 150.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.5 28.7 28.1 22.2 16.3 18.4 16.3 23.8 N N N N F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 56.7 31.2 16.3 9.8 7.1 8.4 14.9 26.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 69.0 106.0 14.0 -26.0 -9.0 20.0 43.0 N N F U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 54.0 61.0 63.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 0.0 1.0 -26.0 11.0 -28.0 8.0 3.0 F N N VF U VF U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.00 WP082025 250715 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 140.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.