Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082025 250715 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.50 141.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 141.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 19.7 15.8 27.2 49.8 55.2 62.0 69.2 F N F N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 25.3 18.5 16.3 15.6 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 -15.0 27.0 -10.0 -20.0 -6.0 24.0 26.0 U U U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 47.0 53.0 53.0 61.0 U U U U VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -13.0 23.0 7.0 -10.0 22.0 36.0 2.0 F VF VU N F VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 12.66 WP082025 250715 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.50 141.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.