Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082025 250716 00UTC Storm Located at : 42.20 143.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 161.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 21.5 24.0 40.2 62.6 56.5 58.5 69.1 F N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 23.7 21.8 20.8 21.4 21.2 21.5 21.5 21.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -2.0 41.0 -15.0 35.0 15.0 4.0 -7.0 21.0 U N U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 56.0 54.0 54.0 57.0 63.0 72.0 N U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 27.0 24.0 31.0 17.0 28.0 35.0 -11.0 VF VU VU VU U VU VU F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 10.88 WP082025 250716 00UTC Storm Located at : 42.20 143.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.