Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082025 250716 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.00 145.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 179.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 32.3 42.6 61.1 70.9 67.8 63.2 67.2 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 21.2 20.5 21.1 21.2 21.1 21.2 21.3 20.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 -31.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 26.0 17.0 U VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 54.0 52.0 51.0 54.0 58.0 65.0 68.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 -1.0 6.0 -20.0 -11.0 -4.0 -4.0 -28.0 U N N VF F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 8.96 WP082025 250716 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.00 145.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.